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Wildfire Forecast for 2024

As we look forward to 2024, there are several important weather factors that are likely to impact the overall wildfire situation in Southern California. The National Weather Service has expressed confidence that 2024 will begin with a full-fledged El Nino effect in the State. That means it’s likely that we’ll experience more rain than we’ve been used to in recent years, including the strong potential for slow-moving atmospheric rivers – large rainstorms with significant output.

The net result will likely be an extended period of lower wildfire risk in the state generally, and in Southern California specifically. This is good news in the short term. It will give homeowners and groups time to work on improving the resilience of homes and properties prior to the next wave of wildfire risk.

That risk may not be far away. The NWS has also predicted a more than 75% chance that by summer, El Nino will be replaced by La Nina. That means hotter than normal weather, lower humidity, and the possibility of a dryer summer and fall. If La Nina does occur, all of the lush vegetation growth from the first half of 2024 will be converted into fuel – into a dangerous wildfire season.

This is why MySafe:LA is so actively working to get homeowners to take the appropriate steps to create safer, more wildfire-resilient homes. You can learn more at our wildfire website.

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